[አንድ ለቅዳሜ] የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶን ፍለጋ

የኢትዮጵያ የዴሞክራሲ ሽግግር በብዙ መልኩ ከማይላወስበት ቅርቃር ውስጥ ገብቷል። መሠረታዊ ፖለቲካዊ ተሐድሶ (Political Reform) እንደሚያመጣ ተስፋ የተጣለበት ኢሕአዴግ በቀዳሚዎቹ ዓመታት ያደረጋቸውን ለውጦች ሳይቀር መልሶ እያጠፋ በኋላ ማርሽ መጓዝን መርጧል። በአጠቃላይ ሲታይም ኢትዮጵያ አዲስ የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ እንደሚያስፈልጋት ግልጽ ነው። አሁን ለመወያየት ጭምር ቀላል ሆኖ የማይታየው “ቀጣዩ የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ በወሳኝነት የሚመጣው ከየት እና እንዴት ነው?” የሚለው ጥያቄ ነው።

ጥያቄውን በአቋራጭ ለመመለስ ቀላሉ መፍትሔ “አንድ ብቸኛ የተሐድሶ አነሳሽ ሊኖር አይችልም” ብሎ ውይይቱን በአጭሩ መቅጨት ነው። አለዚያም ፖለቲካችን ዞሮ ዞሮ የአፍሪካ ፖለቲካ ስለሆነ አለዚያም “ያልተጠበቀ ነገር” ወይም “ተአምር” ሊፈጠር እንደሚችል በማመን መልሱን ለጊዜ መተው አማራጭ መልስ ይመስል ይሆናል። ሁለቱም የአጭር መልስ አማራጮች ፖለቲካችን የገባበትን ድቅድቅ ከማሳየታቸውም ባለፈ ቀላል መከራከሪያዎች ተደርገው የሚታዩ አይደሉም። እነዚህን ለጊዜው ትተን ግን አሁን በማኅበረሰባችን ውስጥ ካሉ ኀይሎች/ክፍሎች መካከል ቀጣዩን የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ በመቀስቀስ የትኛው ምን አይነት አቅም እና ዕድል እንዳለው መገምሙ ጠቃሚ ይሆናል።

1. አገር ውስጥ የሚገኙ ተቃዋሚዎች?

2. የተማረው ኀይል (ተማሪዎችን ጨምሮ)

3. የተደራጁ አካላት (ሲቪል ማኅበራት፣ የሞያ ማኅበራት ወዘተ)?

4. በሥልጣን ላይ በሚገኘው ቡድን ውስጥ የሚገኙ/የሚፈጠሩ ንዑስ ቡድኖች?

5. የታጠቁ ተቃዋሚ ኀይሎች

6. በውጭ የሚኖሩ ኢትዮጵያውያን (ዳያስፖራ)

7. ክፍለ አህጉራዊ ሁኔታዎች

8. የውጭ ተጽእኖ (በተለይ የምዕራቡ ዓለም እና ቻይና)

9. ዓለም አቀፋዊ ሁኔታዎች

(እዚህ ያልተቀሰ ቢኖር እየጨመርን እንደምንቀጥል ታሳቢ በማድረግ) ቀጣዩን የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ በማስጀመርና በመምራት በተናጠልም ሆነ በጋራ ወሳኝ ድርሻ የሚኖራቸውን ሦስት አካሎች በቅደም ተከተል ምረጡ ብንባል መልሳችን ምን ይሆናል?

***************

[በነገራችን ላይ]

የብዙ ሰዎች አትኩሮት የአውሮፓ ኅብረት የምርጫ ታዛቢ ልኡክ ባወጣው የመጨረሻ ሪፖርት ላይ እንደሰነበት ግልጽ ነው። አንባቢዎቻችን ይህ አትኩሮት የሸፈነው ሌላ ምርጫ ነክ ዜና እንዳያመልጣቸው ማስታወስ አግባብ መሰለኝ። የኢትዮጵያ ምርጫ ቦርድ “ድኅረ ምርጫ የዳሰሳ ጥናት” እያደረገ መሆኑን አስታውቋል። ጥናት መደረጉ መልካም ሐሳብ ነበር። የጥናቱን ውጤት ከወዲሁም መገመት ስለሚቻል ብዙ የሚያነጋግር አይደለም። ቁም ነገሩ ወዲህ ነው።

የዳሰሳ ጥናቱ “በሁሉም የክልል መስተዳድሮችና በሁለቱ የከተማ አስተዳደሮች በሚገኙ በ77 የዞን መስተዳድሮች ለናሙና በተመረጡ 154 የምርጫ ክልሎች ይካሄዳል፡፡ በተመሳሳይም በተመረጡ 916 የምርጫ ጣቢያዎች ከእያንዳንዱ የምርጫ ጣቢያ 15 መራጮች ናሙና ተወስዶ በጠቅላላው ከ13 ሺህ መራጮች በላይ በጥናቱ ይካተታሉ፡፡…ለጥናቱ መረጃ የመሰብሰብ ሥራ በአንድ ወር ጊዜ ውስጥ እንደሚጠናቀቅና ይህንን ሥራ የሚያከናውኑ ቡድኖች በሁሉም ክልሎችና የከተማ አስተዳደሮች ካለፈው ጥቅምት 29 ቀን 2003 ጀምሮ ተሰማርተል፡፡”

13 ሺህ ሰዎች በመላ አገሪቱ የሚጠቁበት ጥናት በአንድ ወር ጊዜ ውስጥ ይጠናቀቃል። ኢትዮጵያ እንዴት አይነት ለጥናት የተመቸች አገር ብትሆን ነው 13 ሺህ ሰዎችን ለጥናት ግብአት ለማነጋገር አንድ ወር ብቻ የሚበቃው? የጥናት አቅማችን በየዓመቱ ስንት እያደገ ይሆን? የምስራች ነው።

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27 Responses to “[አንድ ለቅዳሜ] የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶን ፍለጋ”

  1. I suggest fresh political movement organized by educated youth. It should be free of outdated politics in Ethiopia and consist no elders as leaders, whose words and political rallies of any form are attached to past regimes. This may start afresh the politics in Ethiopia and reasonably challenge the government, as the youth may not have anything to attach them with.

  2. This story failed to indicate why we need a reform after all? what kind of reform we need? (Is it just because Meles and EPRDF are there ? Is it because the westerners are not happy with the current political developments and partnership with the east?………….?

    [በነገራችን ላይ]
    If we really need a political reform ቀጣዩን የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ በማስጀመርና በመምራት በተናጠልም ሆነ በጋራ ወሳኝ ድርሻ የሚኖራቸውን ሦስት አካሎች በቅደም ተከተል ምረጡ ብንባል መልሳችን ምን ይሆናል?
    My answer is number 10. None of the above
    However, I may compromise with No.9.
    Anyways I prefer to come to the correct answer
    1. የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ
    2. ኢሕአዴግ
    3. አገራዊ ሁኔታዎች

  3. @ABD; I wonder how you give this kind of blind comments; of course it is ur right but PLEASE…..PLEASE we are suffering here; even i waited the mid-night to write this comment; we are living in horror here; so please do not write about the things you do not know!!!!! TPLF/EPRDF is totally failed to address the country’s real problem; we have seen them for the last 20 years but; imagine always LIE….LIE

    • my friend i do live in ethiopia too what horror are you talking about?…..come back to planet earth my friend….Horror..?…n^^^^^ please!If they want to get you even midnight or day time you are using ETC ….so they will get you ….so “lemen yewashale”..who is the liar..you or EPRDF?…..lol

  4. Dear Girma
    I don’t think there’s any thing that I don’t know about Ethiopia and am still wondering why do you need to wait until the midnight to write a comment? What are the sufferings and horror things you mentioned. I think the problem is we are not appreciating what we acheived in the past 20 years with EPRDF. As a citizen you need first to recognize them then we can argue on what problems are prevailing in the country. I do agree that there are many problems that demand improvement but we should not let individuals or external forces to messed up our country. I have many reasons to beleive that those elements mentioned above particularly 1,5,6 and 8 are not helpful to the Ethiopian political development as it was witnessed in the past 20 years, . I think anyone can explain it why they were not and will not be useful. However we can argue on the rest (2.3,7 & 9). There are many problems with them too.
    Thank You

    • antonio,

      I am sure you are paid to keep up with comments. You are basically every where and it doesn’t look like that you have a job other than this. Aren’t you ashamed? Get out of the antonio mask and be yourslef. Aren’t you Geremedhin Mulugetta from Cherkos- come be real-I know you and you know me too!

  5. Mesfin,

    You raised a very good forwarding idea that needs to be discussed.
    Ethiopian politics, indeed, needs a big reform – A reform that will improve the democratization process in general, and the mentality of the players in particular. I would go for-
    1. የተማረው ኀይል (especially the young students) – This is the force that has a wide-ranging potential to shape the future political trail. Personally, I have no reliance on the old Ethiopian elites, as they are washed with hatred, disguised agendas, racism etc. Among them, it seems to be very difficult to distinguish who is honestly working for the interest of the nation. However, the young Ethiopian elites are, more or less, clean from such dirty politics. The reform should be able to a transform the dominance of the 60s generation to the fresh Ethiopian minds. Can you imagine what the real effect could be, if we have strong youth base that is faithful for the core values of democracy; that is faithful to the rule of law…and so on.

    2.ዓለም አቀፋዊ ሁኔታዎች

    Well this includes No 8 also – ውጭ ተጽእኖ (በተለይ የምዕራቡ ዓለም እና ቻይና)
    I hope we all could agree with this for a very obvious reason.

    3.Media
    This is a tool for every citizen to exactly identify how other fellow citizens think. We can use the media to save a country or at the same time to kill a nation. For that matter, we need independent journalists, who struggle against their convictions (or belief) for the sake of a neutral press.

    Thanks for the idea!!

  6. We have to be fair to our selves. EPRDF is only buying time. It has to go. It was and is an Anti-Ethiopia organization. The core leadership is from “Eritrea”, so to say they are ethiopians of eritrean origin. EPRDF reallly did not mean ethnic federalism. They use it to make sure they have the upper hand.Some groups think that EPRDF is pro Tigray. This is not true. It is EPRDF which aborted the pro Ethiopia democratic struggle in Tigray. This doea not mean ethiopians of Tigray origin are not responsible for the role they played in creating this situation in Ethiopia.

    I think we should be clear in mind who our enemy is. If we stand to fight the wrong enemy, it is evident, we end up strengthening the enemy and us being defeated time and again.

    EPRDF has failed and hs to go to the dustbin of history. The other question how do we do it that EPRDF is removed from the political scene and our people get a government they can call it their own? This should not a mere academic question. We should practical and we should be able to find a means or atool we can use to solve the problem we are facing. As we saw it in the past, EPRDF has creating a very sophisticated lie factory. We can not convince EPRDF cadres because they are sell outs. They are in the organization for the money, for the crumbs they get. Thus we will have to see EPRDF as OUR ENEMY and fight with other means than arguments or articles in the media. We can write thousands of articles a day, but we cannot change the situation to the favour of the people of Ethiopia.

    The last 20 years have shown that we have to force EPRDF out office. We do this by using both legal and illegal means. By legal means, we mean to continue the peaceful struggle. By illegal means we mean to use strikes or other means without the knowledge of the authorities. But this should be well organized. The other illegal means is to be ready to use arms if the government is going to kill our people, specially children. Children should be touched let alone killed by fascist regime of EPRDF.

    We should stand for Ethiopia of the pre-1991 era. Thus some armed groups are collaborating with Eritrea and this should be condemned. Both Eritrea and Tigray are responsible for the situation we are in. Do not trust eritreans because they come to hijack the struggle.

    To summarize, we have to have a vanguard or organization that is focussed on waging illegal means of struggle (nation wide strikes, closure of schools etc). We should further be ready to arm the democratic movement if national strikes and other illegal means of forcing the government to meet the demands of the people are futile. We should not confront with foreign investors or ethiopian investors. All investors can ally with the people of Ethiopia. Alamudi, indian, chinese and other investors will continue to work in Ethiopia after the overthrow of Dictator Meles Zenawi and his henchmen.

  7. I agree with ABD, why do you omit the EPRDF as an option, to the least you should have included it.

    And above all I say we have to stop wishing miracle from west as they are the evil sources for conflicts in Africa.

  8. There will be change in Ethiopia when amharas and oromos are awake from their sleep probably in the next century.

  9. This is a big assignment for some of us who are concerned about politics only as ordinary citizen. It need some time,, I hope in the meantime people who are more versed in politics will deal with it.

  10. The real forces who will drive TPLF out of power are not westren countries, America or china. But G7, OLF, ONLF, TPDM and EPPF will kick meles’s ass and free ethiopia if they will join their forces. here Medrek could pay it’s role arround at least it can keep the unity of the ppl. EPPF must reform it self and reject all it’s dejazemaches like zewudalem kebede and others and must give a chance to ethiopians to form their chapter and elect their own leader whom they trust. All the above forces can make TPLFa a history and bring all criminals. lootters and killers to court.

  11. cleansing EPDRF is the sole and ultimate solution to Ethiopian problem

  12. በመጀመሪያ የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ በወያኔ የበላይነት ከሚመራው ኢሕአዴግ ሊመጣ ይችላል??? የወያኔን አነሳስ ታሪክ፣ የፖለቲካ አመለካከታቸውንና፣ በስልጣን ላይ በቆዩበት ባለፉት 20 ዓመታት በተግባር ሲያሳዩት የነበረውን እንቅሰቃሴ ላስተዋለ የዚህ መልስ አይሆንም ነው፡፡ ነፃ ትግራይን ለማቓቓም የተነሳ ድርጅት ባላሰበው የታሪክ አጋጣሚ ኢትዮጵያን የማስተዳደር ትልቅ ኃላፊነት ወሰደ፡፡ እንደ እኔ እምነት በአሁኑ ሰዓት በኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ የሚታየው የፖለቲካ ቀውስ የፖለቲካ ስልጣኑን በበላይነት በተቆጣጠረው ድርጅት ውስጥ ከሚታየው የተጣረሰ ፍላጎትና የሚቃረን የፖለቲካ ግብ ጋር የተያያዘ ነወ፡፡ ማለትም የወያኔ መሰረት የሆነውን የትግራይን ህዝብ ጥቅምና የበላይነት በማስጠበቅና፣ ኢትዮጵያን እንደ ሀገር በመምራት መካከል ያለው ተቃርኖ ትልቁ የፖለቲካ ደንቃራ ነው፡፡ ምክንያቱም ተወደደም ተጠላም በአብዛኛው በፖለቲካው ውስጥ ተሳታፊ የሆኑ ኃይሎቸ እስካሁን እየተጫወቱ ያሉት ወያኔ ባደላደለላቸው ሜዳ ላይ ነው – በእርግጥ ሁሉም የፖለቲካ ኃይሎች የየራሳቸው የሆነ ታሪካዊ አመጣጥና መሰረት ሊኖራቸው ይችላል፡፡ ሰለሆነም ወያኔ ራሱን ይለውጣል የሚለው አማራጭ በጣም ከእውነት የራቀ ሰለሚሆን ለፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ የመጀመሪያው እርምጃ የወያኔን የበላይነት ማሰወገድ ማለትም ለድርጅቱ ቁመናና አላማ የሚመጥን የሰልጣን ገደብ ማበጀት ነው፡፡ እንደኔ እምነት በኢትዮጲያ ውስጥ ለሚያሰፈልገው የፖለቲካ ተሐደሶ ትልቅ አደናቃፊ ቓጥኝ ሆኖ የቆመው ወያኔ ነው፡፡ በመሆኑም የትኛው ኃይል ይህንን ተሐደሶ ሊያመጣ ይችላል የሚለው ጥያቄም የሚመለሰው፣ የትኛው የፖለቲካ ኃይል የወያኔን የከፋፍለህ ግዛ የፖለቲካ ቁማር፣ ሴራና ፣ወጥመድ ሰብሮ መውጣት ይችላል የሚለውን ጥያቄ በመመለስ ነው፡፡
    እሳከአሁን በታየው የፖለቲካ ሂደት፣ በተለያየ መልክና መጠን ሁሉም የተጠቀሱት ኃይሎች አገዛዙን ለመገዳደር ቢሞክሩም ምንም አመርቂ ውጤት አላሳዩም፡፡ በተለይ ተደራራቢና ዘላቂነት ያለው ተጽዕኖ በማምጣት በኩል አንዳቸውም አልተሳካላቸውም፡፡ በ1997 ምርጫ ወቅት የታየው የቅንጅት አንቅስቃሴ ከግምት ሊገባ ቢችልም፣ ሙሉ በሙሉ በሚባል መልኩ ተጨናግፎአል፡፡ ተቃዋሚዎች ወደ ነበሩበት ደካማ ሁኔታ ተመልሰዋል፡፡ በቁጥር 2፣3፣6 የተጠቀሱት ኃይሎች አሁን ባለው የፖለቲካ ሁኔታ ወጥ ናቸው ማለት ይከብዳል፡፡ በዋነኛነት በዘር፣ በመቀጠል ደግሞ በወያኔ ሰርጎ ገብነት የተከፋፈሉ ሰለሆኑ፣ ይሄ ነው የሚባል የተደራጀ አንቅስቃሴ ማድረግ የሚችሉ ናቸው በሎ ለማሰብ በጣም አጠያያቂ ነው፡፡ በሥልጣን ላይ በሚገኘው ቡድን ውሰጥ የሚገኙ ንዑስ ቡደኖች ሊፈጠሩ ቢችሉም እነደኔ እምነት በአብዛኛው በዝቅተኛ ደረጃ ላይ የሚገኙ አባላትን ያካተተ በቻ ነው የሚሆነው፡፡ በቁጥር 7,8› ና 9 የተጠቀሱት ሁኔታዎች የፖለቲካ ውይይትን ከማሳመር በስተቀር ብዙም ተጽዕኖ ይኖራችዋል ብዬ አልገምትም፡፡ ሰለዚህ የፖለቲካ ተሐድሶ ያመጣሉ የምላቸውን ኃይሎቸ ስመርጥ የሚከተሉትን ታሳቢ በማድረግ ነው፤
    1. የአንድነት ፖለቲካ የሚያራምዱ ኃይሎች የወያኔን የከፋፍለህ ግዛ ፖለቲካ ለመስበር በቁርጠኝነት ለመሰበር ከተነሱ፤ማለትም ከሌሎች ኃይሎች ጋረ ለመተባበር ወይም ለመግባባት ዝግጁ ከሆኑ፤ እንዲሁም የትግላችው ዋና ዓላማ ነፃነትና ነፃነት ብቻ መሆኑን ሲቀበሉ፡ለዚህም ማንኛውንም ለውጥ ፣ሰላምንና መረጋጋትን የሚያመጣ እሰከሆነ ድረስ ለመቀበል ዝግጁ ሲሆኑ ነው፡፡ ይሄ ሁኔታ ምናልባት ትግራይን አንደ ኢትዮጵያ አካል ማጣትን ሊጨምር ይቸላል፡፡
    2. በጎሳ ወይም በብሄር የተደራጁ የፖለቲካ ድርጅቶችም ዲሞክራሲና እኩልነት የሰፈነባት ኢትዮጵያን ማምጣትን እነደኣንድ አማራጭ ማስብ መጀመር ከቻሉ፤ አሁን ያለው የአስተዳደር አከላለል ሆን ተብሎ ግጭትን ለመፍጠር የታቀደና ውጥረትና ፍርሀትን ለማሰፈን የተፈጠረ እነደሆነ ተገንዝበው፤የመገንጠል ጥያቄን ከፖለቲካ ፕሮፓጋንዳ ውጪ ያለውን ተግባራዊ እውነታ ከልብ ማጤን ከጀመሩ
    3. ተቃዋሚ ኀይሎች ኢሕአዴግን እንደ ወጥ የፖለቲካ ድርጅት ማየት አቁመው፣ በውስጡ ያሉትን ድርጅቶች ነጥለው ማየት ከቻሉ፣ በተጨማሪም በአባሎችና ደጋፊዎቸ ፣ በአባላት ውሰጥ፣ በደጋፊዎቸ ውስጥ ያለውን ልዩነት ማጤን ከቻሉ፣ ከጥላቻ ፖለቲካ ራሳቸውን ነጻ ማድረግ ከቻሉ
    አነዚህን ታሳቢ በማድረግ፣ በቅደም ተከተል ባይሆንም በቁጥር 1፣ 4፣ 5 የተጠቀሱት ኀይሎች ተሀድሶ በማምጣት ትልቅ ሚና ይኖራቸዋል ብዬ እገምታለው፡፡

  13. the only way to get rid of eprdf is armed struggle of the ethiopian people.the oromo and the amharan people need to wake up.especially the oromos have to stop crying on what is allegedly happened in the past and focus on what is going on at this time on them and the ethiopian people in general.the oromos should knock for power than knocking the door w/c is already closed(than knocking history w/c doesn’t help nobody).the youth,especially university students, are spying each other to secure 1068 w/c has let them forget that we could get more if we throw woyane away for once and all.so,at this moment it is hard for me to suggest who gonna be the force of change and reform,all i can say is GOD bless ethiopia.praying and fighting are the only options left even if who should lead is still in a question mark.

  14. I want to appreciate Mesfin, you raised a very important issue at the right time as usual. I am always wondering about the blind supporters of woyane and woyane itself. what a rigid mind they have! they don’t care about this country and its future. we need a real reform which makes true:

    1.by trustful educated elites who want to see a better ethiopia
    2.by the ppl

  15. Well,
    1,6,9.
    Forget 2 and 3. Those are the most corrupted part of the society.
    But let me say this. Any one who seek change in ethiopian politics, please think about other groups who can get worse than EPRDF if they come to power. Think about OLF.Do you sense what those people believe and what they wish for the country and for the people? So when we think about change or reform, we should not leave the possibility that it may be worse also.

    I wish a pro Ethiopian political group comes to power and get us back on track. But do you think that such a group can take power? and even if it comes to power, will it be sustainable one? Challenging but one thing is sure – EPRDF will be defeated sooner or latter.

  16. Mesfin, I suggest that EPRDF/TPLF should be given the benefit of the doubt in making a U-turn to reform itself. Who knows Meles may one day wake up and see himslef as the reason for all the mess that this country is into and try to undo that. ‘am I being too optimistic?

  17. It is better to discuss each point. For me No.7 & 9 don’t contribute towards democratization in Ethiopia unless they are clearly explained. When we come to No. 8, the influence of the Western countries, we have to see a couple of circumstances that might help, a)EPDF takes actions contrary to their interests b)the pro demoratic forces challenge EPRDF and as a result the country gets in to confrontation and tension, then they might interven for the sake of statbility of the country as a negotiator between EPRDF and pro democratic forces. At the moment EPRDF is able to play with the Western countries very well, and secondly the pro democratic forces in Ethiopia are very weak and fragmented, so I don’t expect any thing from Western countries. Regardin No. 4 ,which is EPRDF, abebe explained it well. This party should be got ride of the face of Ethiopia as it is the sole source of evils in that poor land.
    As to No. 1, as I noted above they are very weak, fragmented,begrudged, disorganized and even confused. Most of the leaders are old with their own bad histries with Derg, Woyane, EPRP, Meison..They are not ready and capable to wage a peacefull struggle (which includes walkouts, strikes, civil disobdience, hunger strikes….) on massive scale against the evil regime in Addis. Moaning, complaining and condeming EPRDF is not a proper struggle.
    The diasporas,No. 6, can’t be the leaders of the struggle unless they want to lead it by remote controll. But the have sublimentary roles to do, financial support, demonstration and awareness compain in the western countries, lobying..Mind you, diasporas support only works with strong struggle back home.
    It is not right to consider all rebel groups as one as grouped in No. 5. They are of different sorts with different agendas. I can’t see the contributions of ONLF, OLF and other separatist groups to democratization of Ethiopia. They fight to dismantle Ethiopia and lead their own countries most probably as dictators. For me the struggle for democracy includes struggling of these hatemongers, divisive and dangerous groups. Other two pro democracy and pro Ethiopian groups are EPPF and Ginbot 7. These two groups fall in love with Isayas Aferki and other separatists groups and now a days what they do, is frustrating.
    My hope for democratization of Ethiopia rests on No. 2 & 3. If there is good leadership, commitment, courage and vision we can organize the new generation and wage earth-shatering struggle against the evil regime in Addis until it bows down to the demands of the people. The trade unions can organize walk outs, strikes…The civic socities can well organized awareness campaigns. One last thing we need media which opens a propoganda war against the thugs in Menelik palace.

  18. Be it reform or whatever is all a fiasco as is tantamount to squairing the circle .The only choice we have is to wipe out woyane and dumpen to the dust bin of history because this killer woyane is square peg in a round hole.what change do you expect from high binders?so long woyane is thick-skinned to constructive engagment and criticism .These people are still in the state of nature guided by the law of the jungle.

  19. Dear Mesfin……………………… please don’t call me a pessimist person but the future of Ethiopian politics and political reform is at sake!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! foreign powers have no respect for the people if they do, organization like EU would have given the report at time and search for solution…. really i expect nothing from foreign powers,,, if you think of China please??????????????????????
    Believe me the political reform will be undertaken in unexpected and sorry to say in “dirty” way by the Cadres which the government organizes……….. belive me they are like “bear”…….. as we know bear is an animal which have such undermined behavior……………….. they will bite and thorn them apart …………… However, as ELIJAH went to the mount koreb and worry for GOD by saying “who would replace me if i die?” but, the answer that God gave to him was not to worry since He have 7000 saints who were not bow to Beale……… there are millions who prefer to stay put till the bell to alarm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  20. አንድ ኢትዮጵያ 15 November 2010 at 11:29 pm

    ብዙዎቻችን ‹እኔም ግምባር ቀደም ነበርኩኝ› በምርጫ 97 በቅንጅት ላይ ጥልቅ ዕምነት እና ግዙፍ ተስፋ ጥለን ነበር፡፡ ነገር ግን በወቅቱ ቅንጅት መንፈስ አንጂ ጠንካራ ድርጅት አልነበረም፤ ገዢውንም ፓርቲ የሚቀናቀን ፖለቲካዊ፣ ኢኮኖሚያዊ እና የሰው ኃይል መዋቅርና አቅም አልነበረውም፡፡ ሕዝቡ በወቅቱ ለቅንጅት የማያወላውል ድጋፉን የሰጠው በኢሕአዴግ አመራር እና ጉዞ ተስፋ ቆርጦ እና ተማርሮ እንጂ ቅንጅትን ሙሉ ለሙሉ ተቀብሎት አልነበረም፡፡ የምርጫ 97 የቅንጅትን ድል የምገልፀው ሕዝቡ ምን ያህል በወያኔ/ኢሕአዴግ ግፍ እና ጭቆና መማረሩን እያሰመርኩ ነው፡፡

    በሁለተኛ ደረጃ በምርጫ 97 ዋዜማ እንደ ኦነግ ያሉ ፓርቲዎች በወያኔ አምሳል የሚንቀሳቀሱ ነበሩ፡፡ በወያኔ ጭቆና ሕዝብ በእጅጉ ቢቆስልም፤ ሀገር ክፉኛ ብትጎሳቆልም በምርጫ 97 የአምላክ እጅ በኢትዮጵያ የፖለቲካ ሂደት ውስጥ በትልቁ አርፎ እንደነበር ይሰማኛል፡፡

    እስራኤላዊያን የእግዚአብሔርን ፈቃድ በመተላለፋቸው ቀጣቸው፡፡ የቁጣ ፅዋቸው ሲሞላ ግን በሙሴ መሪነት ነፃ አወጣቸው፡፡ የእስራኤላዊያንን የግፍ እና የኃጢያት ፅዋ ከኢሕአዴግ የሃያ እና የሰላሳ ዓመታት የግፍ ክምችት ጋር አመሳስለዋለሁ፡፡ በሌላ ጎን ሙሴ ወገኖቹን ከግብፅ ባርነት እየመራ ከማውጣቱ በፊት እግዚአብሔር በእግሩ ስር ዝቅ ብሎ እንዲማርና እንዲታነፅ አድርጎታል፡፡ ተቃዋሚ ፓርቲዎችን እና መሪዎቻቸውንም የምመስለው በሙሴ አካሄድ ነው፡፡ አብዛኞቹ ተቃዋሚዎች ኢሕአዴግ የቀደደላቸውን ቦይ ለቀው ኢትዮጵያን ወደ ዲሞክራሲያዊና ሰላማዊ ጎዳና የሚመራት ጠባብ እና ለም ጎዳና ላይ እስኪወጡ ድረስ እንደ ሙሴ ራሳቸውን ማነፅ እና ማሳደግ ይጠበቅባቸዋል፡፡ በአሁኑ ወቅት በተቃዋሚዎች ጎራ ይህንን ፍንጭ እያየሁ ነው፡፡ የኦነግ ወደ ብሔራዊ አጀንዳ መምጣት ትልቅና ወሳኝ እርምጃም ነው፡፡ እንደ ፕሮፌሰር በየነ ጴጥሮስ እና ልደቱ አያሌው ያሉ ግላዊ ክብር ናፋቂዎች የጀመሩት መንገድ የትም እንደማያደርሳቸው በምርጫ 2002 ምላሽ ማግኘታቸውም ወደፊት የሀገሪቱን ፖለቲካ ለሚዘውሩ የተቃዋሚ ቡድኖች እና መሪዎች ትልቅ ትምህርት ይሆናቸዋል፡፡

    በአጭሩ ኢሕአዴግ እንደ እስራኤላዊያን በእግዚአብሔር ፊት የግፍ እና የበደል ፅዋው ሞልቷል፡፡ ተቃዋሚዎች ደግሞ ራሳቸውን አንፀው ሕዝባቸውን እንደ ሙሴ ከባርነት የሚያወጡበት ዘመን ደርሷል፡፡ በእኔ ዕይታ ከአሁን በኋላ ላለው የኢትዮጵያችን የወደፊት ዕጣ ፈንታ ቁጥር 1 እና 5 ላይ የቀረቡት አቅጣጫዎች ወሳኝ ይሆናሉ፡፡

  21. Abebe
    Everybody should be treated equally should be the premise of any arrangement. If you are entertaining the idea of sacrificing Tigray to “save” other regions for Ethiopia, why don’t you entertain the idea of sacrificing other “regions” as well? Then, call Ethiopia whatever is remaining.

    It looks to me that you are already concluded that TPLF will not be defeated. History has demonstrated you never know when tyrants will be defeated. It could be sooner than you could imagine.

  22. I think Mesfin has given us an interesting riddle – which of the above has a role to play in bringing democracy to Ethiopia. The answer, I think, is 10) ALL of the above.

    Failure to understand that this is the answer has been perhaps the biggest problem with the opposition and democratic movement.

    For any movement or struggle, the maxim should be – ‘Everyone is a potential ally’. However, in the democratic movement, and I think this is because of some aspects of our culture, the thinking has been – ‘Everyone is a suspect or threat’. So instead of cultivating coalitions and alliances, we have been cultivating conflict and breakup.

    A couple of simple examples… The obvious ones are the intra-party conflicts we’ve seen in the opposition parties. The attitude of the people fighting should be – ‘How can I use my opponent, etc., for my own ends – to achieve my/our goals?’ Instead, the attitude is – ‘How can I attack and alienate him?’ We tend to forget the big picture – our big goal – and focus on ‘winning’ the little conflicts.

    Another example… Consider the case of people joining the EPRDF. Given that in today’s reality, I as a citizen can do little to stop this, should my attitude be to shun these people? No. What good would that do? In fact, doing so against my interests. My attitude should be – ‘How can I use these people to attain my goals?’ These people joining the EPRDF should be seen as a potential resource for the democratic movement – the perfect Trojan horse.

    And we can continue in the same way for all of the above nine categories.

    So the lesson, I think, is don’t forget the big picture, everyone is a potential ally, even if they themselves might not know it.

  23. Here I come again to Mesfineeee’s post after some inconvenience in posting comment. The fact that it is inevitable for the existence of some kind of changes to take place some time makes it necessary to look into what these factors really are. Looking to the factors of historical events, it is reasonable to assess multi causation if one has to be exhaustive in the treatment of the event. But not all factors are significant with the same degree. Indeed the values of some factors are contingent on others. Yet we can not simply ignore the value of this or that factor all in all. In counter factual historical studies factors that appeared to be determinant for an event might be supposed to be less significant. But incidence far from imagining may result an imagined result. In some case it may give an impetus to the expected consequence. In another case it may yield completely different repercussions. So far some of the commentators are weighing the role of the factors as suggested by Mesfin. Some of the comments simply dismissed some of the factors. I think this simplification is a little bit hasty. When an event is precipitated by one or two other factors it induces other factors worthiness and condition their activeness. Therefore even if the latter are not decisive the former may not be able gravitate the actual event at hand. Therefore, it is conceivable to assess the value of the factors. But it is plausible to assess the time required to bring any change by the dynamism of which factors. It is like gauging HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE for reform vis-à-vis which factor’s catalysis. I am here suggesting the time factor. Because some factors by nature arrests the pace and prolong the time for reform. Adding other variables to the equation will I think strengthen the issue and the converse.

  24. @ Berhanu Debotch,

    Mesfin suggested some possible players for a political reform (እዚህ ያልተቀሰ ቢኖር እየጨመርን እንደምንቀጥል ታሳቢ በማድረግ- as he put it there), and he suggested us to pick three out of those – As you said, some commenters abide themselves with the list, while others add what they believe is important. However, you proposed about adding more variables to the equation, which is correct in principle. However, you suggested only the time factor –I think, the time factor is included in each of the elements mentioned there. Politics is a dynamic problem, and the variables that can qualify for the equation are a function of time. Giving a simple glance at the list once again, I think, you can observe the inclusion.
    Anyhow, as you mentioned somewhere, the standard of comments on such ideas has a positive contributing effect to the notion of the topic, so what factors do you think are worth considering for the intended reform?

  25. The first three; but in an order of 2,1 and 3

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